From a 50-38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the tracking poll’s first four days, Oct. 20-23, it’s a 47-45 percent contest in the latest results.
• As Trump’s controversies last week and the week before move further into the rearview mirror, Republicans are expressing greater likelihood to participate: Eighty-one percent of registered Republicans now are likely voters, up from 75 percent a week ago.
• In one example, there are 6 points more Republicans and GOP-leaning independents showing up in the ranks of non-college white women. This group was broadly for Trump a few weeks ago, then less so; it’s now back, favoring him by 59-29 percent.
• Loosely affiliated or reluctant Clinton supporters look less likely to vote, perhaps given their sense she can win without them — a supposition that looks less reliable today.
• Vote preferences also are part of the mix. At its lowest early this week, 82 percent of Republicans supported Trump. It’s 86 percent now. And his share of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents has gained 6 points, from 78 to 84 percent.
Trump, meanwhile, has gone from a 6-point deficit to a 16-point advantage among independents, with more Republican-leaners in their ranks.
Among other examples of partisan shifts in turnout, the share of white likely voters who are Democrats or lean that way is down by 5 points. The share of white women who are Republicans or GOP leaners is +6 points, and leaned Democrats are down 7 points in this group. And the share of 18- to 29-year-olds who are Republicans, or lean that way, is +6, though still low, while leaned Democrats age 18-29 are -9 points.